RedsUnite: a man utd blog

Photo via Michael.Kjaer

I don’t even know why we have to play Saturday. Without a victory in their last 12 matches against Manchester United, Newcastle decided to prepare a little differently this time: they sacked their manager, Sam Allardyce.

The Magpies come to Old Trafford a discombobulated mess. Taking eight points from their last eight matches, Newcastle’s recent form has been consistent with their form all season: just good enough to land them smack in the middle of the table. They don’t succeed admirably. They don’t fail miserably. They just float along ordinarily in the middle of the pack. I get the feeling that the Toon Army and the organization as a whole has grown a bit tired of this trend, sending Sam Allardyce out to pasture after only eight months at the helm, their sixth manager canned in ten years.

Will this move be the catalyst that finally inspires the Toons to the next plateau, beginning with a victory over the Reds at Old Trafford? Probably not.

• Newcastle has not won at Old Trafford in their last 11 trips and their away form this season does little to suggest a change is coming–winners of just two of ten away matches.
• Manchester United scores a full goal more at home than Newcastle averages away.
• To make matters worse for the Magpies, Manchester concedes 1.25 less goals per home match than Newcastle concedes on the road.
• Manchester carries an eleven match home unbeaten streak into the match, while Newcastle’s current form has them as losers of their last two away matches.

On paper, this should be a guaranteed three points for the Reds. If only it were that simple. Football is a sport prone to surprises, and it can not be known how a volatile team like Newcastle will respond to recent turmoil. The Geordies are not a side without talent; Butt, Duff, Owen, Smith, Geremi, Martins, Viduka, N’Zogbia and the like are not unfamiliar names. But will interim boss Nigel Pearson be able to organize this Newcastle side effectively enough to take points away from this weekends fixture?

If Manchester United wants to win, statistics suggest they would be well served to be the first team to strike and carry that lead into halftime. I know, that’s pretty obvious advice, but Newcastle are particularly lacking in resilience, taking only one point from the seven matches in which they trailed at halftime. In such matches they scored four goals while conceding 16, a truly pathetic showing. If Manchester United hold the lead heading into the second half, there is a great chance that a bloodbath could follow. However, if Newcastle are the first to strike, they stand a good chance of holding that lead, only giving away five points on the season in matches in which they owned the lead.

All that statistical mess out of the way, Manchester United would be ashamed to lose this match. Alex Ferguson will not be outdone by a Newcastle side with only a titular head–sorry, love the word titular. Manchester United have yet to lose this season when Wayne Rooney appears and last weekend’s FA Cup performance against Aston Villa suggests that he is in good form, taking Man of the Match honors in only 20 minutes of play. I believe that if we score early, this is going to be a massacre. I will be more convinced of our margin of victory when I see the side that Ferguson selects. Going into it blind, however, I am inclined to be conservative: Manchester United 3-0 Newcastle United